Lagging indicators of credit quality

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While in a single name context ratings are often criticized for being lagging indicators of credit quality, classifying bonds by rating is one widely used method to reflect the behavior of different risk classes in credit markets.

Many market participants argue that spreads themselves and spread volatilities are more timely indicators of an issuer’s credit risk than ratings. They consequently prefer to split the universe in spread class buckets. The disadvantage of this method is that it leads to relatively unstable compositions of the individual buckets and is less convenient, because the major index providers do not calculate indices based on spread classes. Since the different rating buckets constitute the corporate bond market as a whole, there is clearly a correlation between overall market fluctuations and the spread changes of the different rating subportfolios.

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